January 23, 2021

How knowing weather report can help MLB bettors (New York Post)

Sports betting is all about edges — using predictive information the general public tends to ignore. Sure, everyone knows the Yankees are good and lots of runs get scored in Coors Field, but far fewer people understand that weather is perhaps the biggest edge in MLB betting right now. The impact on the game is massive, yet the lines don’t always reflect the weather conditions properly.

Basic science tells us that hotter air is thinner air, and thinner air creates less friction on a ball heading toward the outfield fence, causing it to fly further and, more often, over the fence. Taking a look at the average runs scored per game (RPG) by temperature bears this out:

Temp.          RPG
Under 40     8.64
40-49           8.96
50-59           8.92
60-69           8.83
70-79            9.06
80-89           9.55
90+             10.60

Since 2017, the difference between games under 40 degrees and over 90 degrees has been nearly two full runs per game. At one run per team, that kind of swing in weather alone would turn the 2019 Seattle Mariners (4.68 runs per game, 19th in MLB) into the 2019 Houston Astros (5.68 runs per game, first in…

Read “How knowing weather report can help MLB bettors” at New York Post