June 17, 2021

Sarris: The top five bounce-back hitters for the 2020 season (The Athletic)

The idea behind this article is simple: Let’s look at the position players who are projected to be much better than they were last year. It’s interesting enough to see which players these systems think will return to form or improve, full stop.

But, during the discussion on these players, we might notice that we don’t buy the projection for whatever reason. And that becomes interesting in a different way because it gets at the efficacy of predicting the future, and the information that goes into — and doesn’t go into — these projections as they are currently constituted.

Can we use our own brains to better assess the likelihood these players bounce back (or don’t)? Maybe. Our brains are remarkably plastic, and depending on the information we put into them, they could be ahead of the projections in certain key areas.

First, the names, courtesy of Steamer projections on FanGraphs:

It’s a great list, full of very…

Read “Sarris: The top five bounce-back hitters for the 2020 season” at The Athletic