June 13, 2021

Projecting the Eleven Players Taken in the Rule 5 Draft (FanGraphs)


If you guessed that the expansion of the rosters to 26 players would result in more teams rolling the dice in the Rule 5 draft, you guessed wrong. Don’t feel too badly; I guessed wrong, too. Of last year’s 14 draftees taken in the major league phase, only three players — Richie Martin, Brandon Brennan, and Elvis Luciano — weren’t returned to their original teams. So how many of this year’s draftees taken in the major league phase of the draft have a chance of finishing the season with their new clubs?

Most players taken in the Rule 5 draft are quickly returned and forgotten, but there’s a long history of real contributors thriving in their new organizations. Johan Santana was the best player to swap teams in the Rule 5, but the list of eventual All-Stars taken is surprisingly long, including Shane Victorino, Odúbel Herrera, Ender Inciarte, Ryan Pressly, Josh Hamilton, and Joakim Soria. Last year’s draft was a bit of an outlier in that, at least for now, it looks like none of the players will make a long-term impact. For those drafted, there’s a real benefit, as their new team has a financial incentive to give them every opportunity to win a roster spot…

Read “Projecting the Eleven Players Taken in the Rule 5 Draft” at FanGraphs